The Danger for India and Pakistan Has Not Gone Away

India and Pakistan have apparently removed from the edge again. But so much was new about the chaotic four -day clash of enemies with nuclear weapons, and many of the underlying accelerators are still volatile, that there is little to suggest that the truces return to the old restriction patterns.

A new generation of military technology fed a vertiginous aerial escalation. The waves of air attacks and antiiaircraft volley with modern weapons prepare the stage. They soon joined armed drones and mass for the first time along the old control line in Kashmir, hundreds of them in the sky, investigating the defenses of each nation and hitting without risk for any pilot.

Then, the missiles and drones were scratching the border areas and deeply in the territories of India and Pakistan, hitting the air bases and direct defense, which caused terrible threats and the highest level of military alert.

Only then, international diplomacy, a crucial factor in past setbacks between India and Pakistan, seems to participate seriously, in what seemed the last minute before the catastrophe. In a new global chapter defined by dangerous conflicts, distracted leaders and a sense withdrawal from international responsibility to maintain peace, the security network had never seemed thinner.

“Historically, many of India-Pakistan conflicts have been arrested because or external intervention,” said Srinath Raghavan, military historian and strategic analyst.

Mr. Raghavan noted that none of the countries has an important military industrial base, and the need to trust the sales of weapons abroad means that external pressure can have an effect. But the positions of both sides seemed more extreme this time, and India in particular seemed to want to see if it could be a different result from that of previous conflicts.

“I think there is a stronger type of determination, apparently, by the Indian government, make sure that Pakistani do not feel that they simply escape or get uniforms,” ​​he said. “Which is definitely part of the climber. Both parties seem to feel that they cannot let this end be with the sensation of the other side that have shown the advantage.”

The political realities in India and Pakistan, each grabbed by a rooted religious nationalism, remain unchanged after the fighting. And that perhaps creates the most powerful thrust towards the child of the confrontation that could come out again.

Pakistan is dominated by a military establishment that has suffocated civil institutions and is directed by a hard line general that is the product of decades of efforts to Islamize the Armed Forces. And the triumph of Hindu nationalism, which is remodeling the secular democracy of India as an openly Hindu state, has promoted an uncompromising approach to Pakistan.

On Sunday, there were still no indications that Pakistan or India could repair their diplomatic relations, which Bone Frosty had just before the military escalation, or relieve visa restrictions in the citizens of each Eather. And India did not seem to retreat from his statement that would no longer comply with a river treaty between the two countries, a critical factor for Pakistan, which said that any effort to block the flows act of act of act of act of act of act of act.

The spark for the last fighting was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmiro that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any role.

The crisis ended a six -year pause in which the Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi had tasks of a two -pointed approach to Pakistan: try to isolate his neighbor with a minimum contact and reinforce security at home, Indianly Throucmirzild.

Establishing a staircase military action pattern in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, India had fit into a maximum response position. After last month’s attack, the political pressure to deliver a powerful military response was immediate.

But the options for the Indian Army were not easy. He publicly published the last direct clash with Pakistan, in 2019, when a transport helicopter fell and when the Pakistani forces knocked down an Indian combat plane of the Soviet era and captured their pilot.

Mr. Modi’s effort to modernize his military since, pouring billions of dollars, he was hindered by the supply limitations captivated by the Russian war in Ukraine. India was also emphasized by a four -year skirmish on its Himalayan border with China, where tens of thousands of troops remained at the foot of war until a few months ago.

When it was time to use the force against Pakistan last week, India wanted to put that lost prestige and those past difficulties are. He also sought to show a new more muscular approach on the world stage, capable of Wang not only his growing economic and diplomatic power, but also the military as well.

Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who have studied the dynamics between India and Pakistan said India left this last conflict with an assertive and aggressive aspect, and perhaps has established a certain level of deterrence with Pakistan.

But the way the fight is developed did not suggest an improvement at the operational or strategic level, they said.

In its first round of air attacks, on Wednesday, India reached the deepest objectives within the enemy territory than what had hit enough close to the facilities associated with terrorist groups that is it it is it it it it it is ityyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyYyyyyyy.

Every day that followed was full of language of India and Pakistan, which suggests that they had achieved what they wanted and that they were ready to restore. But every night I was full of violence and climbing. The most traditional artillery volley through the border remained intense, which caused the greatest loss of lives. And drone and air attacks became more and more bold, until some of the most sensitive military and strategic sites in each country were attacked.

What finally seemed to trigger the intense diplomatic pressure of the United States, with clear help in the field of Saudi and other Gulf states, it was not only that the objectives were approaching sensitive sites, but what the next was next night. The powers could mean.

Shortly before the fire was announced on Saturday night, Indian officials already pointed out that any new terrorist attack against the interests of India would be similar levels of force.

“We have left the future history of India to ask what political strategic advantages, if any, they were obtained,” said General Ved Prakash Malik, former head of the Indian army.

Hari Kumar Contributed reports.