Canada Election: Polls Tighten, But Carney’s Liberal Party Still Appears Poised to Win

As the election day in Canada is coming on Monday, support for the two main matches has begun to converge in the surveys, however, the race seems to continue the liberal matches to lose.

The Liberal Party of Prime Minister Mark Carney now leads the conservative party of 42 percent to 39 percent on average, according to the CBC survey tracker, a fall in the advantage of almost seven points that the liberals had at the beginning of the campaign last month. Some surveys show an equally intelligent advantage, but the Liberal Party still seems ready to win, according to pollsters.

“Due to the distribution of the National Vote, there is a bit of distortion, not or what is seen in the United States with the Electoral College,” Sid Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice president of the signing of eastern Canada, an important survey.

But, he added, “even if the national vote will be tied, it would probably mean that the liberals won more” seats in the House of Commons, allowing them to form a government and give Mr. Carney a complete term as a prime minister.

Surveys could also underestimate national support for the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, but it might not be enough to overcome the advantage of liberals.

The Conservative Party won the popular vote in the last two elections, but still lost to the liberals on both occasions. Conservatives can survey the national well, but still to fall short because their support tends to concentrate on a lower number of parliamentary districts.

Conservatives have too much support in the western provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta, but this is equivalent to relatively few seats because their populations are lower than the provinces that are more competitive.

In the electoral system “first” by Canada, in which the candidate who resorts to most votes, but not necessarily a majority, wins, having a lower level of support in a greater number of districts is one more advantage.

Surveys in Ontario and Quebec, which have more seats than the rest of the combined country, shows a much stronger liberal advantage. In Ontario, the liberals have an advantage of seven percentages on average, while in Quebec, it is closer to 15 percentage points.

Just a few months ago, a liberal victory in the elections seemed extremely remote.

The Canadians had been grated at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party after a decade of power, and the conservatives had an advantage of more than 20 percentage points in the surveys.

But after President Trump launched a commercial war against Canada and began threatening to annex the nation as the “State 51” of the United States, the public feeling began to turn. Once Mr. Carney replaced Mr. Trudeau as head of the party in March, the reversal of fortune won impulse as the voters saw Mr. Carney as the most capable candidate or prohibited Mr. Trump.

Beyond the horse race, surveys on the issues that Canadians are more concerned about election day have changed, but still suggests an advantage for Mr. Carney.

In the week, surveys show that the Trump approach has decreased, while the economy and affordability have become more prominent problems. In several surveys, Mr. Carney and the Liberal Party have had the advantage of relations between the United States and Canada.

But Mr. Carney, with his experience as head of the central banks in Canada and Great Britain, is also well considered in economic matters: a plurality of Canadians in a recent Abacus data survey, the Liberal Party could grow the economy.

At the beginning of the campaign, more Canadians said they voted according to which game they felt that it would be the best suitable to face Mr. Trump, according to the Abacus data survey. In more recent surveys, most Canadians say they are more interested in which the party can deliver a change in the country’s leadership.

But while most voters who prioritize change favor conservatives, one in four still prefers liberals, according to Abacus, despite the fact that the party is in power during the last decade.

“That tells me that Mark Carny has done enough to point out and comfort those voters who is sufficient change with Justin Trudeau,” said David Coletto, founder and executive director of Abacus Data. “The way in which both leadership is approaching and this campaign has sufficiently lower than people who could otherwise have other change. That is why they cling to leadership.”