A case for a Saudi-US deal, minus the normalisation – Middle East Monitor

On the eve of the next trip of US President Donald Trump to the Gulf next week, one of the most debated questions is the destination of the Saudi-Israel standardization agreement under Abraham’s Abraham agreements. Trump himself fed speculation on Tuesday, causing an “very, very large” announcement before his departure. His envoy from the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, had already suggested an advance, reinforcing the assumptions that standardization will take the center of the stage. The real question, however, is how Saudi Arabia will navigate this pressure.

Saudi Arabia is in slats to be Trump’s first stop, underlining its strategic importance for Washington. Trump intended to make Saudi Arabia, the first foreign destination when he returned to office, but that changed with a detour before Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis. Even so, Riad marks his first significant diplomatic stop. Symbolism remains: its first foreign trip in 2017 was also for Riyadh. Now, the returns to Ink to Potens Arms that grant $ 100 billion, an investment package inherited from the Biden era, that Sough to advance in the same treatment as part of a brader impulse to expand Abraham’s agreements.

The Biden administration had turned Saudi-Israel a “national security interest”, imagining it as an cornerstone to unlock economic corridors in the Middle East, southern Asia and Africa. After October 2023, the urgency grew. Washington saw standardization as a way of rewarding and controlling Israel, hoping that Saudi leverage could induce Israeli concessions, a high fire in Gaza or even progress in the condition of Palestinian status.

In this sense, the Trump administration shows continuity. Trump’s internal circle: from Jason Greenblatt to Mike Huckabee and Mike Waltz -Dave, everyone echoed normalization as a priority. A team was already mobilized before the inauguration, which reflects Trump’s lasting ambition to expand Abraham’s agreements and possible a Nobel Peace Prize. In a recently Time Interview, Trump reiterated his belief that Saudi Arabia will join the fold, a rare note of consistency in its erratic foreign policy.

But are they downloading all hopes? The answer is in the Saudi court. Standardization without a state hood is not a corridor. Even under the less extreme Israeli leadership, real state was never in sacrifice. Today, with Ruinas Gaza and the overwhelming majority of the Saudi opposed, normalization runs the risk of deranging the Saudi Arabia’s de -escalation strategy and undermining vision 2030. Worse still, it benefits only Netanyahu, who seeks political survival to parade as a victory.

Read: The United States prepares to sign a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia

With the imminent visit of the Middle East of Trump and putting Saudi Arabia under immense pressure, Riad now must step on a very delicate line. First, you must clearly identify where your national interests are. All of these are concentrated in the first half of the proposition agreement: an American-Saudita strategic alliance agreement, defense cooperation, deeper commercial ties and investments, and crucially, the support of the United States to the Saudi Civil Nuclear Program.

This nuclear association could allow the kingdom to build the infrastructure and experience necessary to become a state of nuclear latency with Germany, Japan, Canada and, most importantly, Iran. These are long -term serious strategic gains. Meanwhile, the second half of the agreement, normalization with Israel, offers Saudi Arabia very little or tangible.

So why not chase the first without the second? The waiting for the irrevocable commitment of the best scenario-Israel with Saudi Palestine Arabia should continue with the security of the United States economic and security package, except standardization.

Is that just possible? The second thing to recognize is that Trump’s world sacrifices both the challenge and the opportunity. Despite Trump’s self -proclaimed status as “the best friend Israel has had in the White House”, he has never reduced a broader gap between Israel and the United States than now. And Trump is clearly the one who calls the shots.

There are broad signs of this change. The very fact that the United States is in conversations with Iran’s wishes -aginst Israel is one. Another was Trump’s decision to process with the withdrawal of the American troops of the Northeast of Syria, despite the Israeli Conerns on the Turkish influence there. More recently, it is reported that USA. Consider raising sanctions to Damascus, again, about Israeli objections. Also observe how he made a high fire with the hutis without even informing the Israelis.

Perhaps the most recount sign reached the door of the Secretary of Energy of the United States, Chris Wright, to Riad, where he confirmed the progress in a Saudi-Use nuclear agreement. What he did not mention was normalization with Israel. This omission says a lot.

To take advantage of this opening, Saudi Arabia must understand and work with Trump’s transactional mentality. The business is the first. In his first term, Trump openly celebrated the sales of weapons to Saudi Arabia, with $ 110 billion in promised purchases. Hey admitted choosing Riad about London as his first foreign visit in 2017 due to the scale of the agreement.

Trump 1.0 also saw his administration strive to address nuclear technology transfers to Saudi Arabia, without going through Congress in the process. All this suggests that only Trump sees in private the central value of the agreement in its economic and strategic dimensions, and not in Israeli standardization.

Trump’s transactionalism extends beyond simple cash flow. Saudi Arabia can be sacrificed to deepen its defense association with the United States, while maintaining competitors such as China, Russia or even the United Kingdom and France with the arm. Despite the schist of the United States, Washington still depends on the Gulf oil to feed economic growth, while Saudi Arabia depends on stable prices to finance its budget. If the United States expects Riad to compensate for Iranian oil cuts, safety guarantees must follow.

Saudi Arabia can also take advantage of its financial influence. It is already being withdrawn financially, reducing $ 5 billion in the FDI in the USA. If Washington wants to reverse that trend, you must support the robust support of Saudi Arabia, including a green light for its nuclear ambitions. That is a mutual benefit, without normalization.

Bears coordinating the United States, a dose of reality can be healthy. Saudi Arabia must leave a clear thing for Washington: if the United States won the support of nuclear ambitions after Riyadh oil, others will. France, South Korea and China have already offered assistance. When linking nuclear cooperation to standardization, Washington runs the risk of supervision and fixed influence on a growing Saudi nuclear program. That would be a strategic error.

Despite Trump’s advantage, forcing Saudi Arabia to normalize ties, Riyadh can be comforted in the way Trump or repalate with minimum foreign concessions in “historical” victories of the United States. If it is handled asthutically, only a soft standardization of climbing agreement could be framed as a diplomatic triumph by Trump’s White House.

Ultimately, everything depends on Saudi leadership and diplomatic delicacy. The story shows that, sometimes strange but significant, the “Arab lobby” has overcome the formidable Lobby of Israel. If Riad can achieve this again, he won only a strategic alliance with the USA., He will also consolidate his role as a regional leader. Same important, he will send a powerful message to Israel: he is no longer in the center of the universe, not even that of the United States.

Read: The ‘Arabic otan’ is a security trap of the United States for Gulf countries

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