King Dollar dethroned; dollar assets could lose 40% in next three years

Matein Khalid

The last time the US dollar index collapsed 9% in the first four months of one year was in 1973, when Richard Nixon sat in the White House on the eve of Watergate, the October war in the Sinai/Gulan, the Arab oil boycott and a savage.

Last week he provided a breath of the sale of tsunami or backback that had more than 1.15 tasks, sterling at 1.34 and gold at $ 3,500 per ounce. The dollar landfill is not treated, but the treasure bond market has cured its basic commercial cracks, the yields of 10 years have fallen to 4.25% and gold has been corrected below $ 3, 300, even when Bitcoin has $ 95000 and credit/volatility differentials

However, I cannot ignore the dark macro storm clouds under the Zeitgeist of “Do not worry, be happy” Last Wall Street, since Uncle Scrooge is still anxious to be the poopa of the macro party. The US dollar will resume its immersion of debt after a cyclical rally against the next three weeks. Because?

One, US high frequency consumer data are really horrible. From credit card spending to travel receipts, from increasing home bankruptcy to non -risk mortgage breeding rates, a lower orientation of Pepsico and Walmart, the message in the bottle is clear. Joe Six Pack is hurting and this is just before the tariffs have affected the cost of their avocados and bear. The only consolation is that the yuppies will be a crown of expenses of expenses, with a lemon as Mexican tariffs come into play. A consumer recession is now safe and the US consumer remains 70% of American GDP and 34% of global consumption. Double!

Two, Trump has made a change of meaning about his threats to end “Mr. Too late/crazy/greatest loser” Jay Powell, but his rape of Post Regan/Thatcher taboo against interference with the political onomics he made about the fate of the Turkish lyre. The new order in Washington’s monetary policy is not positive for the assets of the US dollar, as well as the laws of any protection of the rule of law.

Three, the relations between the U s-chinos will not suddenly turn to a warm and cuded approach, even if Trump invites XI to his birthday party in Mar-A-Lago on June 1 4. It was not a good idea for JD Vance, a man with six steps and DNA of Hillbilly, call the 1.4 billion “peasants” of the Chinese peoples. Xi has lost his face and the ruler of Dragon Empire will never make a commercial agreement under coercion.

Four, the geopolitical seizures of Trump’s protection racket diplomacy have baffled both enemies and the allies of the United States. Reserve managers worldwide are increasing their assignments to hard/gold currencies, only that the US dollar remains 70% of all transactions in the $ 7 billion bazaar FX per day.

Five, the United States faces the worst of all Panglossian worlds with 0%economic growth, a tariff price shock, an inflation of 5%, an interest rate bath, a budget deficit of $ 2 billion and a risk of $ 37 billion of $ 37 in the costs of costs of costs of costs and shares of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9 of $ 9. Net dollars immerse themselves from $ 19 billion in foreign property risk assets in states fighting for an output window.

Six, Yen is a clear winner in the New World that struggles to be born, since Japanese inflation is above US CPI and the Bank of Japan is the only Central Bank G-10 with a tight money bias. The euro will be Goed for the German rearmament pivot of billions of dollars and the fiscal expansion of Foreign Minister Merz. Sterling is an Anti -Dolar Cinderella, but work has more than four hundred parliamentarians in Westminster and Sir Keir has dominated the art of Pod Olenomics of Tony Blair with his commercial hug Trumpian.

Seven, intelligent money has increased its short bets in dollars on a quantum scale. If the speculative commercial data of Chicago CFTC and the planet Forex biased options/Gossip Grapevine are any guide as they are always for me, my macro Lodestars tells me that the rebound of Kitty Dollar Dead is horrible. Maga has made the leprosy in dollars for global investors and coverage funds.

CCG investors have already lost 12% of their assets because they are 100% exposed to the US dollar due to their fx plugs. This is not the time to be an ostrich with the head in the sand, since the Rage currency wars and the planet Forex, so that it does not end up losing 40% of its dollars in the next 3 years. The wolf is real and the wolf is here.

Also published in Medum.