Conflict With India Seriously Endangers Pakistan’s Energy Security

By k ravendran

The reports on the other side of the border suggest that Pakistan is already suffering a fuel crisis, and gasoline pumps were ordered closed at the moment. An analysis of the emerging energy scenario following the current conflict suggests the beginning of a serious crisis for Pakistan, while India is relatively in a much better position to handle any situation.

The outbreak of tensions has also put at the forefront the importance of emergency preparation in the energy sector, since a prolonged conflict severely impacts the capacity of both countries to meet their energy needs, according to analysts.

In terms of daily demand for crude oil, India consumes 5.40 million barrels per day (BPD) compared to the 0.25 million BPD of Pakistan, according to estimates. However, the discrepancy goes beyond the fair demand: the strategic and commercial reserves of India can keep the supply for approximately a few months, while Pakistan, which lacks strategic reserves, only has a value of 20 days in stock.

As tensions increase, both countries are expected to increase crude oil and refinery activity.

Diesel demand is likely to increase in the midst of greater military mobilization, while the fuel consumption of airlines decreases as the airspace closures lead to flights in redireous, cancellations and high prices of airline tickets.

A comparison of its strategic oil reserves a significant disparity: India has a strategic reserve capacity of 39 million barrels, with 21.4 million barrels currently notable. In contrast, Pakistan lacks strategic reserves, potentially leaving the nation vulnerable to supply interruptions.

This gives India a reserve coverage of approximately seven days, based on their existing strategic reserves.

In addition, piles of commercial shares of India of about 160 million barrels can sustain the country for about 33 days, Waseas Pakistan reserves will last 20 days.

While the obligations of crude oil reserves of India are managed through a combination of strategic reserves of counties in the government and commercial reserves of the company with a company, without fixed legal requirements, Pakistan has a clear or refined regulation of a 20 ice ice ice ice. ITY-INE ICE ICE ICE, ITY-DAY ICE ICE, ITY-DAY ICE ICE ICE, ITY-DAY ICE. ITY-DAY ICE. ICE ICE ICE, Ice Day. Ice, ice, ice day. Ice, ice. ITY-INE REGULATORY AUTHORITY (OGRA).

As the third largest world importer, the dependence of India in imports is significant, with 85 percent of its demand with imports. Pakistan also depends largely on imports, fulfilling around 78 percent of their demand.

The refineries on both sides are located far from the conflict region, eliminating the probability of an impact on refinery operations. While the absence of LNG refineries and terminals in the affected regions may not affect crude and LNG imports, disparity in emergency preparation between India and Pakistan is a cause for concern.

The risk of direct attacks on commercial ships is rare and prohibited according to international law. Even so, the risk of military confrontations or a misunderstanding, special in areas close to naval operations, increases voltage duration. Oil clearers who pass through the region could be subject to scrutiny or detour if the situation intensifies.

The key refining centers of India in western Gujarat handle more than 50 percent of daily raw imports in the country, with the Sikka, Vadinar and Mundra ports that supply six refineries. In the next five days, five raw charges of the Middle East are ready, two already in Indian waters, and the other three have more than 5 million barrels of Arab light and Basrah Heavy are on their way.

According to analysts, the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty raises a serious risk of energy security for Pakistan, with up to 9.3 GW or hydroelectric capacity, or 90% of its total, at risk due to the interrupted water flows of India.

Analysts feel that the termination of the treaty would give India the total control of the Indo, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, allowing him to build more hydroelectric projects and potentially operate the existing upstream facilities so that they could negatively affect their posterior neighbor.

While India depends less on hydroelectric energy, climbing could still put its energy infrastructure at risk. India has 2.7 gigawatts (GW) or hydroelectric projects that depend on the rivers included in the IWT of a total of 52 GW of hydroelectric capacity installed throughout the country.

The largest at risk is the 900 megawatt Bagilhar dam (MW) with Chenab entrance. The interruption of these projects will have a relatively small impact, since hydroelectric energy only contributed 8% to the generation of total energy in 2024.

On the other hand, any additional escalation in the tensions between India and Pakistan could the energy infrastructure, including nuclear centrals in both countries, with greater risk of becoming military objectives. Rystad’s energy analysis indicates that the IWT interruption could put up to 9.3 GW of hydroelectric capacity, equivalent to 90% or the total hydroelectric energy capacity of Pakistan, at risk. The largest hydroelectric project is the 4.9 GW tarbela dam with Indo’s entrance. (IPA service)